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Greg Mankiw's Blog
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<p id="description">Random Observations for Students of Economics</p>
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<h2 class="date-header">Friday, August 29, 2025</h2>
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<div class="post"><a name="1504555967649358036"></a>
<h3 class="post-title">
Dear Committee Members
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEibvu4YyfnKhpfD1U1MPftXxHu8QCJ_J2c0FcBq6ZBzQlUHZezp_Ra9RC31j9Dpo-I6OaeaF8l9FTmk2gqV_S5Or6rBupbd0psJAhPiLOC8zr5snekany1l4Lwl5m_8FkTVFZSeo9iiHGiaczrJTL9n3C6cSyQ_5OhpOFe4dTWUMnimiiQU3p3e" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1500" data-original-width="970" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEibvu4YyfnKhpfD1U1MPftXxHu8QCJ_J2c0FcBq6ZBzQlUHZezp_Ra9RC31j9Dpo-I6OaeaF8l9FTmk2gqV_S5Or6rBupbd0psJAhPiLOC8zr5snekany1l4Lwl5m_8FkTVFZSeo9iiHGiaczrJTL9n3C6cSyQ_5OhpOFe4dTWUMnimiiQU3p3e=w169-h261" width="169" /></a></div>Like many who spend their lives in the ivory tower, I enjoy academic satires. That includes Richard Russo's novel <i>Straight Man</i>, the movie <i>Wonder Boys</i>, the TV show <i>The Chair</i>, and many books by David Lodge.<div><br /><div>The most recent is Julie Schumacher's <i>Dear Committee Members</i>, written as a series of recommendation letters from an increasingly cantankerous creative writing professor. Highly recommended for those who like this genre. For me, it was a great way to end the summer, as I prepare for my first class on Tuesday.</div><div><p></p></div></div><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<h2 class="date-header">Thursday, August 21, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
Josh Barro, Betsey Stevenson, and Yours Truly
</h3>
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<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/opinion/trump-economy-tariffs-data.html?unlocked_article_code=1.f08.OwM6.rqmPFPgNa8WG&smid=url-share" target="_blank">A conversation in </a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/opinion/trump-economy-tariffs-data.html?unlocked_article_code=1.f08.OwM6.rqmPFPgNa8WG&smid=url-share" target="_blank"><i>The New York Times</i></a><i>.</i></p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/08/josh-barro-betsey-stevenson-and-yours.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Tuesday, August 12, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
Our Dollar, Your Problem
</h3>
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<div style="clear:both;"></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZdlslZUCNApPvZ17VmjN-WBOek1diaH2tQYKD7Pv38jSYkySS6iVGC9TStCBnICQidveyxhJWjlWwwq4-Hf_qS3FvEXZCwEW0ZNvzWVlj1D2n0Tf4tyomjlITdWRO_fn5v9DYlOfnAuRkOpFHoZQdD0L-vPSc2eRJTuDqO42gGcPnsc6EMOY3" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="596" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZdlslZUCNApPvZ17VmjN-WBOek1diaH2tQYKD7Pv38jSYkySS6iVGC9TStCBnICQidveyxhJWjlWwwq4-Hf_qS3FvEXZCwEW0ZNvzWVlj1D2n0Tf4tyomjlITdWRO_fn5v9DYlOfnAuRkOpFHoZQdD0L-vPSc2eRJTuDqO42gGcPnsc6EMOY3" width="159" /></a></div><br />I just finished <i><a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/" target="_blank">Our Dollar, Your Problem</a></i> by my Harvard colleague Ken Rogoff. It is a great read for econonerds like me, especially for those who lean toward macro rather than micro. Ken wonderfully blends personal anecdotes with wise observations about the evolution of global finance.<p></p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<h2 class="date-header">Wednesday, August 06, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
Economics Teaching Conference
</h3>
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<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p>I will be speaking at a teaching conference to be held in New Orleans on November 5-7, 2025. If you might be interested in attending, <a href="https://events.cengage.com/event/8c68ea95-0be0-4345-be5c-8907eda43b41/summary?RefId=Mankiw%20Blog&rt=0-aoCmCNo0uSuYFzpRBbHw" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<h2 class="date-header">Tuesday, August 05, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
Keep Politics Out of Data
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<div style="clear:both;"></div><p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/08/05/trunp-bls-firing-mistake-mankiw/" target="_blank">Cecilia Rouse and I opine in the <i>Washington Post</i></a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/08/keep-politics-out-of-data.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Monday, August 04, 2025</h2>
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Paul Krugman and I
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<div style="clear:both;"></div><p><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/04/Tv/video/amanpour-bianna-golodryga-trump-fire-bls-statistics-chief-paul-krugman-greg-mankiw" target="_blank">...talk with Bianna Golodryga on CNN</a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/08/paul-krugman-and-i.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Sunday, July 13, 2025</h2>
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Wimbledon Wisdom
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<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p>I recently ran across a <a href="https://home.dartmouth.edu/news/2024/06/2024-commencement-address-roger-federer" target="_blank">graduation speech</a> by the tennis great Roger Federer. I especially appreciated this passage:</p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">In
the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those
matches... Now, I have a question for all of you... what percentage of the
POINTS do you think I won in those matches?</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">Only
54%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">In
other words, even top-ranked tennis players win barely more than half of the
points they play.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">When
you lose every second point, on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">You
teach yourself to think: OK, I double-faulted. It’s only a point.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">OK,
I came to the net and I got passed again. It’s only a point.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">Even
a great shot, an overhead backhand smash that ends up on ESPN’s Top Ten Plays:
that, too, is just a point.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">Here’s
why I am telling you this.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">When
you’re playing a point, it is the most important thing in the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">But
when it’s behind you, it’s behind you... This mindset is really crucial,
because it frees you to fully commit to the next point… and the next one after
that… with intensity, clarity and focus.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">The
truth is, whatever game you play in life... sometimes you’re going to lose. A
point, a match, a season, a job... it’s a roller coaster, with many ups and
downs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">And
it’s natural, when you’re down, to doubt yourself. To feel sorry for yourself.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">And
by the way, your opponents have self-doubt, too. Don’t ever forget that.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">But
negative energy is wasted energy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">You
want to become a master at overcoming hard moments. That to me is the sign of a
champion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 1rem; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; transition: font-size 0.1s; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #0d1e1c; font-family: arial;">The
best in the world are not the best because they win every point... It’s because
they know they’ll lose... again and again… and have learned how to deal with
it.</span></p><p></p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
</div>
</div>
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<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/07/wimbledon-wisdom.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Thursday, July 10, 2025</h2>
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<div class="post"><a name="1759878329402149847"></a>
<h3 class="post-title">
The Fiscal Future
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p>At 4:45 pm today, I will be giving the 2025 Martin Feldstein Lecture at the NBER Summer Institute on "The Fiscal Future." I believe you can watch the lecture live at <a href="https://www.youtube.com/nbervideos" target="_blank">NBER YouTube channel</a>. In any event, I will post the video when it is available.</p><p>Or you can read the lecture <a href="https://mankiw.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum5931/files/2025-07/Feldstein%20lecture.pdf" target="_blank">by clicking here</a>.</p><p><i>Update</i>: The video is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B916t3od8fM" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p><i>Update 2</i>: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/08/08/economic-fiscal-debt-crisis/" target="_blank">George Will offers a nice summary</a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="post-footer">
<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-fiscal-future.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Wednesday, July 09, 2025</h2>
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<div class="post"><a name="1917714170871635789"></a>
<h3 class="post-title">
Amicus Brief in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p> <a href="https://www.aei.org/articles/amicus-brief-in-v-o-s-selections-inc-v-trump/" target="_blank">I was happy to join this group of sensible economists</a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="post-footer">
<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/07/amicus-brief-in-vos-selections-inc-v.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Tuesday, July 01, 2025</h2>
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<div class="post"><a name="89925551026885186"></a>
<h3 class="post-title">
Today I Learned
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">"</span><span style="background-color: white;">Beginning in the last decade of the 18th century, firewood output increased from about 18% of GDP to just under 30% of GDP in the 1830s."</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w33974" target="_blank">Source</a>.</span></span></p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="post-footer">
<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/07/today-i-learned.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Sunday, June 29, 2025</h2>
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<div class="post"><a name="6593045319683638099"></a>
<h3 class="post-title">
My talk at the recent Princeton reunions (Alan Blinder moderates)
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="250" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/h1A1rbOxk7w?si=1Oz9nfx8dCL420zh" title="YouTube video player" width="420"></iframe><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="post-footer">
<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/06/my-talk-at-recent-princeton-reunions.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Sunday, June 01, 2025</h2>
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<div class="post"><a name="3945414648459501020"></a>
<h3 class="post-title">
Stanley Fischer
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p>The world lost a great man today. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/01/business/stanley-fischer-dead.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Lk8.vWEh.vhuSx1kWTP8N&smid=em-share" target="_blank">Here is Stan's obituary</a> in the <i>New York Times</i>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
</div>
</div>
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<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/06/stanley-fischer.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Sunday, May 25, 2025</h2>
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<div class="post"><a name="7528468713909832291"></a>
<h3 class="post-title">
Harvard Derangement Syndrome
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #363636; font-family: nyt-imperial, georgia, "times new roman", times, serif;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/23/opinion/harvard-university-trump-administration.html?unlocked_article_code=1.JU8.Pllq.zvgSmOTKwBR1&smid=url-share" target="_blank">Fantastic article by Steven Pinker</a> on the situation at Harvard. A tidbit:</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #363636;"></span></p><blockquote><span style="font-family: arial;">And if you’re still skeptical that universities are worth supporting, consider these questions: Do you think that the number of children who die every year from cancer is just about right? Are you content with your current chance of developing Alzheimer’s disease? Do you feel our current understanding of which government policies are effective and which ones are wasteful is perfect? Are you happy with the way the climate is going, given our current energy technology?</span></blockquote><p></p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="post-footer">
<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/05/harvard-derangement-syndrome.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Friday, May 16, 2025</h2>
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<div class="post"><a name="4213688681836684303"></a>
<h3 class="post-title">
I talk with Gerry Baker
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p> <a href="https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/opinion-free-expression/tariffs-taxes-and-the-big-beautiful-bill/539d579d-6532-4033-9615-a19ddc6f17bb" target="_blank">At the Free Expression Podcast</a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="post-footer">
<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/05/i-talk-with-gerry-baker.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Wednesday, April 30, 2025</h2>
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<div class="post"><a name="5520861784986461354"></a>
<h3 class="post-title">
Harvard faculty put their money where their mouths are
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/17ZoSE5Yhrs9gi3_OicmK4wFuB6W7O4MLZIQ7VvN84Yk/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Here</a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="post-footer">
<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/04/harvard-faculty-put-their-money-where.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Saturday, April 19, 2025</h2>
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<div class="post"><a name="354051209287802075"></a>
<h3 class="post-title">
Do you oppose the Trump tariffs?
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p> <a href="https://anti-tariff.org/" target="_blank">If so, sign here</a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="post-footer">
<em><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/04/do-you-oppose-trump-tariffs.html" title="permanent link">permanent link</a></em>
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<h2 class="date-header">Monday, April 14, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
I talk with Bianna Golodryga
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<div class="post-body">
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<div style="clear:both;"></div><p> <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/14/Tv/video/amanpour-mankiw-tedeschi" target="_blank">On CNN</a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<h2 class="date-header">Thursday, April 03, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
A Virtual Teaching Conference
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p>I will be talking at a virtual economics teaching conference on April 11. If you are interested in participating, <a href="https://events.cengage.com/event/cf42f02e-2e54-4373-88be-355c799f8cf6/summary" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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Why the dollar is depreciating today
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<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p>In a <a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/03/kevin-hassett-forgets-econ-101.html" target="_blank">previous post</a>, I noted that, other things being equal, trade restrictions strengthen the dollar. A reader asks, why then is the dollar depreciating in the wake of the newly announced Trump tariffs?</p><p>The answer, I believe, is that other things are not equal. In particular, the policy has reduced investor confidence in the U.S. economy. That's also why the U.S. stock market is declining relative to stock markets abroad.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/usd-reaction-to-trumps-tariffs-limited-so-far-ec809c75" target="_blank">WSJ</a> explains the dollar depreciation as follows:</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">The dollar’s sharp falls after President Trump’s tariff announcement raises concerns about the risk of a broader confidence crisis, Deutsche Bank’s </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">George Saravelos</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"> says in a note. “Developments since the start of the year make us worried about a broader undermining of confidence in the U.S. economic outlook and the medium-term desirability of dollar allocations.” This risks an unwinding of overweight positions in U.S. assets from countries that have exported capital to the U.S. over the past decade.</span></span></p></blockquote><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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Are you feeling liberated yet?
</h3>
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<div style="clear:both;"></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgpkg97zWL7V9bJpu7YhTux3dlffs3REtNVa1ndQjkIIrkCEkWf8xwnIUv1weSYBp1BYxA60NSrIGFggQwTJBI6DLC8BXtOknHJqg_tp-kUfjaL4TbqBJeLo6bga35axz4iF_ptEaRj_gbAfiUl3i_kGPPcEzHSNxw_Q4kJEPy_d3YaybVFB-rU" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="654" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgpkg97zWL7V9bJpu7YhTux3dlffs3REtNVa1ndQjkIIrkCEkWf8xwnIUv1weSYBp1BYxA60NSrIGFggQwTJBI6DLC8BXtOknHJqg_tp-kUfjaL4TbqBJeLo6bga35axz4iF_ptEaRj_gbAfiUl3i_kGPPcEzHSNxw_Q4kJEPy_d3YaybVFB-rU=w411-h221" width="411" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<h2 class="date-header">Wednesday, April 02, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
I called it
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p>Almost nine years ago, <a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2016/08/my-take-on-mr-trump.html" target="_blank">I wrote</a> that I would not support Mr. Trump's candidacy:</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: small;">Mr. Trump has not laid out a coherent economic worldview, but one recurrent theme is <b>hostility to a free and open system of international trade</b>. From my perspective as an economics policy wonk, that by itself is disqualifying.</span></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: small;">And then there are issues of temperament. I am not a psychologist, so I cannot figure out what Mr. Trump's personal demons are. But he does not show the admirable disposition that I saw in previous presidents and presidential candidates I have had the honor to work for.</span></p></blockquote><p>Sadly, today's announcement about tariffs makes clear that I was right. Welcome to the kakistocracy.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<h2 class="date-header">Monday, March 24, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
Two of the best international finance economists opine on Trump policy
</h3>
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<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/lets-stop-trade-deficit-blame-game" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: medium;">Maury Obstfeld</span></a></li><li><a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/guest-contribution-mar-a-lago-accord-march-22-2025" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: medium;">Jeff Frankel</span></a></li></ul><p></p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<h2 class="date-header">Saturday, March 22, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
Might President Trump stumble onto a good policy?
</h3>
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<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p>I don't have much faith in the Trump administration's economic policy, but I see one small glimmer of hope. The president plans to announce his new tariff policy on April 2. So far, he has said two things about it. First, the goal is reciprocity. Second, he wants to treat a value-added tax, which most other nations have, as a tariff.</p><p>I don't buy either of these arguments. On reciprocity: Why should I shoot myself in the foot just because you shoot yourself in the foot? On the value-added tax, he is just wrong. A value-added tax is a consumption tax, not a trade restriction. (See <a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/02/a-vat-is-not-trade-restriction.html" target="_blank">here</a>.)</p><p>But what if these two misguided arguments together lead Trump to propose a value-added tax? </p><p>That would be great. The new tax could finance cuts in other, more distortionary taxes, reduce the budget deficit, or some combination of the two. I have written about the virtues of a value-added tax <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/business/02view.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/10/value-added-tax.html" target="_blank">here</a>. </p><p>I know, I am probably engaged in wishful thinking.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<h2 class="date-header">Friday, March 21, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
America First?
</h3>
<div class="post-body">
<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqS2mh6DKJQ_sL4oDGGoNi-ET43sOqYW051Maif2U9XRQ1OCEuYjxkOBBdPJn4bLwmpaokj0l250CYikusaf_gNf-o0CqpaOZl3c4MkurE-snaOUMlGNU37qcCLHUhOq7UqupMI8uqfSiVQ-8zZUS-7d19h73RhwOhS0vAQgc6TTeGYX9HrvrI" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="717" data-original-width="1219" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqS2mh6DKJQ_sL4oDGGoNi-ET43sOqYW051Maif2U9XRQ1OCEuYjxkOBBdPJn4bLwmpaokj0l250CYikusaf_gNf-o0CqpaOZl3c4MkurE-snaOUMlGNU37qcCLHUhOq7UqupMI8uqfSiVQ-8zZUS-7d19h73RhwOhS0vAQgc6TTeGYX9HrvrI=w417-h244" width="417" /></a><br />From my Harvard colleague <a href="https://x.com/itskhoki/status/1902424691656073522" target="_blank">Oleg Itskhoki</a>. (Click on image to enlarge.)</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<h2 class="date-header">Saturday, March 15, 2025</h2>
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<h3 class="post-title">
A new review of my favorite textbook
</h3>
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<div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div><p> <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/7086592182" target="_blank">Here</a> or <a href="https://booksandnotes.substack.com/p/book-review-gregory-makiw-principles" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><div style="clear:both; padding-bottom:0.25em"></div>
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<dl class="profile-datablock"><dt class="profile-img"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/profile/18161221774770492266"><img src="//blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaKrVRhlHCIjAAvm0cXoFG2Kl7lI9rpvG0fcYJ9nTY1vIJcpmPciNLNu1a3MUjzm9AtwUBdoTmKnLLsZZKteFEtFH3YPsbNZekTmZLoYPvTZ301OlSUpoX7scOjDiK2ALBFLMxRxVSZgqOdNw96gkRF9ID34Rbz5xNf7LmKK4PadPIcg/s220/mankiw.jpg" width="80" height="80" alt="My Photo"></a></dt>
<dd class="profile-data"><strong>Name:</strong> <a rel="author" href="https://www.blogger.com/profile/18161221774770492266"> Greg Mankiw </a></dd>
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<p class="profile-textblock">I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to keep in touch with my current and former students. Teachers and students at other schools, as well as others interested in economic issues, are welcome to use this resource.</p>
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<h2 class="sidebar-title">Timeless Words of Wisdom</h2>
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<li>I don't care who writes a nation's laws, or crafts its advanced treaties, if I can write its economics textbooks.
<li>-- Paul A. Samuelson</a></li>
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<h2 class="sidebar-title">Naked Self Promotion</h2>
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<li><a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/mankiw/home">My Harvard Website</a></li>
<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Mankiw">My Wikipedia Page</a></li>
<li><a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/mankiw/content/columns-and-talks">Old Columns and Talks</a></li>
<li><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Ga0i--0AAAAJ&hl=en">Google Scholar Citations</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.cengage.com/c/principles-of-economics-10e-mankiw/9780357722718/">The Best Way To Learn Economics</a></li>
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<h2 class="sidebar-title">Previous Posts</h2>
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<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/08/dear-committee-members.html">Dear Committee Members</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/08/josh-barro-betsey-stevenson-and-yours.html">Josh Barro, Betsey Stevenson, and Yours Truly</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/08/our-dollar-your-problem.html">Our Dollar, Your Problem</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/08/economics-teaching-conference.html">Economics Teaching Conference</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/08/keep-politics-out-of-data.html">Keep Politics Out of Data</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/08/paul-krugman-and-i.html">Paul Krugman and I</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/07/wimbledon-wisdom.html">Wimbledon Wisdom</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-fiscal-future.html">The Fiscal Future</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/07/amicus-brief-in-vos-selections-inc-v.html">Amicus Brief in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/07/today-i-learned.html">Today I Learned</a></li>
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<h2 class="sidebar-title">Advice for Students</h2>
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<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/05/advice-for-aspiring-economists.html">Advice for Aspiring Economists</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/04/where-do-econ-phds-begin.html">Where do economists come from?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2010/03/choosing-graduate-program.html">Choosing a Graduate Program</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2013/03/working-before-grad-school.html">Working Before Grad School</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/05/advice-for-grad-students.html">Advice for Grad Students</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/02/advice-for-new-junior-faculty.html">Advice for New Junior Faculty</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/05/which-math-courses.html">Which math courses?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/09/why-aspiring-economists-need-math.html">Why Aspiring Economists Need Math</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/06/love-econ-bad-at-math.html">Love Econ, Bad at Math</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/05/summer-reading-list.html">Summer Reading List</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/06/jd-vs-phd-my-story.html">JD vs PhD: My Story</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/03/my-life-as-student.html">My Life as a Student</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/08/phd-or-not.html">PhD or not?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/09/education-beyond-classroom.html">Education Beyond the Classroom</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/06/engineer-seeks-career-advice.html">An engineer seeks career advice</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/12/question-about-learning-economics.html">A Question about Learning Economics</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/09/good-academic-bad-human-being.html">Good Academic, Bad Human Being</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2019/09/should-grad-students-teach.html">Should grad students teach?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/06/are-b-school-economists-different.html">Are B-school economists different?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/10/how-to-write-well.html">How to Write Well</a></li>
</ul>
<MainOrArchivePage>
<h2 class="sidebar-title">Principles of Economics</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/02/ten-principles-of-economics.html">Translated</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/11/ec-10-video.html">Animated</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2010/01/economics.html">Acrostic Version</a></li>
</ul>
<MainOrArchivePage>
<h2 class="sidebar-title">Archives</h2>
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